Agile thinking that is common in the IT industry is suitable for other areas of life as well. In this post, we apply it to current topics. By critical thinking we mean skepticism about using unverified assumptions in decision making.
Solving Complex Adaptive Problems
We use Scrum framework within which people can address complex adaptive problems,. Its core is empiricism that asserts that knowledge comes from experience and making decisions is based on what is known. It employs an iterative, incremental (repetitive and additive) approach to optimize predictability and control risk while productively and creatively delivering products of the highest possible value
In complex problems cause and effect relationships are difficult to observe. They are non-linear. For example the spread of a pandemic started exponentially and has a long tail towards zero. It has a feedback loop where immune people do not spread the disease. Incubation period is an example of a time delay between the cause and effect.
In complex problems cause and effect relationships are difficult to observe. They are non-linear. For example the spread of a pandemic started exponentially and has a long tail towards zero. It has a feedback loop where immune people do not spread the disease. Incubation period is an example of a time delay between the cause and effect.
To analyze a problem we identify the influencing factors. For 
example the spread of a virus depends on the virus itself and how people socially distance from each other. Fish-bone diagram can be used to describe the factors.
Causal loop diagram shows the influencing factors and their relationship.
Cause or Effect?
Vitamin D has been proposed as a solution but we are not sure whether the vitamin reduces viral infections or viruses consume vitamin resources or a person prone to infections also has limited vitamin reserves or some combination of these.
Just correlation of factors is not enough. We need to ensure the mechanism. We may have a mechanism but not the effect. Timing and dose has an impact on its effectiveness and adverse and side effects in humans. We can use calculations and computer models, test tube and laboratory tests, pathology and experiment with animals to fail faster.
Because causes have their own causes, we do root cause analysis to go deeper. 5 whys is a typical technique to find the factors that should be changed. For example we would like to know why some of the old people who had the virus died. Note that unambiguous, simple chain of causes and effects does not necessarily exist.
In wicked problems effect emerges from the collaboration of several influencing factors, observations look chaotic and statistics do not show enduring correlations. You may find bounds within which the effect fluctuates. They are called (strange) attractors.
Scientific Method
Scientific Method is based on empiricism. Organizations thrive with the culture of experimentation.
Randomized double-blind study is the gold standard of empirical research. If we are developing a new drug we need to know whether the healing is due to the drug or something else. In a such study patients are randomly divided into two groups: 1. those who get the new medicine and the best treatment and 2. Those who are receiving placebo and the best treatment.
Results depend on the sample and patient selection. Because there is a chance of chance, studies have be repeatable. We need to create the research plan in advance and define success. Is it to be alive 5 years after the study, or 50 years or something else.
When we are designing complex products we need to have empirical evidence, facts , to support our assumptions the product can be built and that customers want to buy it. A/B-testing is widely used.
Cognitive Bias, Image Marketing
When we look at any information, thinking slow and analytically takes energy. We use intuition, the fast way instead[1]. Then we have deal with cognitive biases [2] and logical fallacies[3]. It is easiest to deceive oneself.
We believe that we know more than we really know. We believe in people like us. We advocate results that useful for us and confirm our assumption. It is easy to be right in hind-sight and think in a given context, inside the box.
Logic is difficult. So, we trust authorities and attack persons. Our chain of reasoning way is invalid, even circular. We generalize isolated cases. Falsifying our claims may be impossible. Our arguments may be contradictory which is called cognitive dissonance.
We need to use evidence based science instead of relying on image marketing. Image marketing appeals to emotions. It uses adjectives, especially fear, threat and danger. Your own product is combined with words perceived as positive and competing products with negative ones. The meaning of the words may be modified
You should be attentive when you see overwhelming number of repetitions and one-sidedness of the view. Everyone says that AI and robotics are coming. You notice words of understatement like ‘predicts’ and ‘could’ in “Professor predicts 100M could die”.
Furthermore, you see that title does not match content. It may be just a clickbait. Research and facts are missing. In the worst case there are no facts or facts do support the arguments or perception of the facts is exaggerated. Storm in a glass of water is reported as a global catastrophe.
Proceed Adaptively Step by Step
Because we do not know the outcome in agile uncertain world, we proceed step by step. We adapt after each step because, we cannot make a comprehensive plan. We are moving forward all the time. Error steps are possible and allowed.
Agile leaders are humble servants of others that catalyse the discovery of new problems and better solutions. Life in uncertainty is like life of a scientist and a gardener.
Agile leaders tolerate and appreciate different opinions. Fact-based solutions succeed and bad ideas fail quickly when we have freedom of science and free discussion & communication. Censorship is detrimental to creativity.
References
- Kahneman, Tversky: Thinking slow, thinking fast,